Market Insight

Daily Analysis: Sterling Pushes On Ahead of CPI

Reece Dye

Reece Dye

Head of Corporate Clients

Published Last Updated 2 min read

Our daily analysis of EUR, GBP and USD.

GBP

  • CPI data from the UK this morning showed inflation at its lowest level in nearly three years, but remained above estimates, pushing back June rate cut predictions.
  • Headline CPI fell to 2.3% year-on-year for April, missing a 2.1% consensus, while Core CPI read 3.9% versus a 3.6% estimate.
  • Services inflation proved sticky, reading 5.9%, little changed from last month’s figure.
  • The data makes it harder for the BoE to cut in June, with traders no longer fully pricing in two cuts in 2024.
  • GBP gained on the news, hitting levels not seen since March versus both euro and dollar.

EUR

  • EUR/USD holds in the mid 1.08 territory with EUR/GBP sliding towards the low 0.85’s.
  • The euro may feel some pressure as we head towards a likely interest rate cut from the ECB in June.
  • HCOB PMI data is eyed tomorrow from France, Germany and the bloc.

USD

  • Softening inflation and a weakening economy keep the dollar on the back foot.
  • Fed speak and FOMC Minutes today will attract some attention, as will S&P Global data tomorrow.
  • For now, the dollar seems to be giving up the gains made when the Fed looked less likely to cut multiple times this year.
    • A closer alignment of Fed, ECB and BoE policy may see the March highs for EUR/USD and GBP/USD tested.

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